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Parkinsonia Model

Title:	Parkinsonia Model
Date Created:	12/12/2009
Short Description:	Model for predicting the suitability and susceptibility of land to the weed Parkinsonia.
Long Description:	None
Version:	1
Authors:	Carl Smith
Categories:	DBL Interactive Training Materials, Examples
Target Audiences:	Everyone
Total Nodes:	15
Total Nature Nodes:	15
Total Decision Nodes:	0
Total Utility Nodes:	0

Nodes

Distance_Downstream

Type:	Nature
Discrete / Continuous:	Discrete
Short Name:	Distance_Downstream
Long Name:	Distance Downstream from Infestation
Short Description:	None
Long Description:	None
Parents:	None
Children:	Introduction_Flood
Total States:	4
Hidden:
Enabled:
Default State:	None
Display Colour:	Lime

States

Short Title	Long Title	Real Value	State Value	Sort Order	Description
Less_than_1_km				1
1_to_5_km				2
5_to_20_km				3
Greater_than_20_km				4

Probabilities

Less_than_1_km	1_to_5_km	5_to_20_km	Greater_than_20_km
0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25

Flooded

Type:	Nature
Discrete / Continuous:	Discrete
Short Name:	Flooded
Long Name:	Does Site Get Flooded
Short Description:	None
Long Description:	maximum flood extent - does it ever get flooded
Parents:	None
Children:	Introduction_Flood
Total States:	2
Hidden:
Enabled:
Default State:	None
Display Colour:	Lime

States

Short Title	Long Title	Real Value	State Value	Sort Order	Description
Yes				1
No				2

Probabilities

Yes	No
0.5	0.5

Introduction_Flood

Type:	Nature
Discrete / Continuous:	Discrete
Short Name:	Introduction_Flood
Long Name:	Introduction by Flood
Short Description:	None
Long Description:	Needs to be flooded and 1, 2-5 or 6-20km downstream
Parents:	Flooded, Distance_Downstream
Children:	Introduction
Total States:	2
Hidden:
Enabled:
Default State:	None
Display Colour:	Yellow

States

Short Title	Long Title	Real Value	State Value	Sort Order	Description
Yes				1
No				2

Probabilities

Flooded	Distance_Downstream	Yes	No
Yes	Less_than_1_km	0.7	0.3
Yes	1_to_5_km	0.1	0.9
Yes	5_to_20_km	0.01	0.99
Yes	Greater_than_20_km	1E-05	0.99999
No	Less_than_1_km	0	1
No	1_to_5_km	0	1
No	5_to_20_km	0	1
No	Greater_than_20_km	0	1

Distance_from_Infestation

Type:	Nature
Discrete / Continuous:	Discrete
Short Name:	Distance_from_Infestation
Long Name:	Distance from Infestation
Short Description:	None
Long Description:	<1km, 1-5km, 5-20km
Parents:	None
Children:	Introduction_Incidental
Total States:	4
Hidden:
Enabled:
Default State:	None
Display Colour:	Lime

States

Short Title	Long Title	Real Value	State Value	Sort Order	Description
Less_than_1_km				1
1_to_5_km				2
5_to_20_km				3
Greater_than_20_km				4

Probabilities

Less_than_1_km	1_to_5_km	5_to_20_km	Greater_than_20_km
0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25

Introduction_Incidental

Type:	Nature
Discrete / Continuous:	Discrete
Short Name:	Introduction_Incidental
Long Name:	Incidental Introduction
Short Description:	None
Long Description:	None
Parents:	Distance_from_Infestation
Children:	Introduction
Total States:	2
Hidden:
Enabled:
Default State:	None
Display Colour:	Yellow

States

Short Title	Long Title	Real Value	State Value	Sort Order	Description
Yes				1
No				2

Probabilities

Distance_from_Infestation	Yes	No
Less_than_1_km	0.1	0.9
1_to_5_km	0.001	0.999
5_to_20_km	0.0001	0.9999
Greater_than_20_km	1E-05	0.99999

Introduction

Type:	Nature
Discrete / Continuous:	Discrete
Short Name:	Introduction
Long Name:	Introduction
Short Description:	None
Long Description:	None
Parents:	Introduction_Flood, Introduction_Incidental
Children:	Susceptibility
Total States:	2
Hidden:
Enabled:
Default State:	None
Display Colour:	Yellow

States

Short Title	Long Title	Real Value	State Value	Sort Order	Description
Yes				1
No				2

Probabilities

Introduction_Flood	Introduction_Incidental	Yes	No
Yes	Yes	1	0
Yes	No	1	0
No	Yes	1	0
No	No	0	1

Soil_Type

Type:	Nature
Discrete / Continuous:	Discrete
Short Name:	Soil_Type
Long Name:	Soil Type
Short Description:	None
Long Description:	Good = VE (vertosols) Fair = CH, DE, FE (chromosols, dermosols, ferrosols) Poor = CA, HY, KA, RU, SO, TE (calcarosols, hydrosols, kandosols, rudosols, sodosols, tenosols, NR (not classified) http://www.clw.csiro.au/aclep/asc_re_on_line/soilkey.htm
Parents:	None
Children:	Establishment, Survival
Total States:	3
Hidden:
Enabled:
Default State:	None
Display Colour:	Lime

States

Short Title	Long Title	Real Value	State Value	Sort Order	Description
good				1
fair				2
poor				3

Probabilities

good	fair	poor
0.3333333	0.3333333	0.3333333

REs

Type:	Nature
Discrete / Continuous:	Discrete
Short Name:	REs
Long Name:	Flood Frequency
Short Description:	None
Long Description:	Regional ecosystems
Parents:	None
Children:	Establishment, Survival
Total States:	3
Hidden:
Enabled:
Default State:	None
Display Colour:	Lime

States

Short Title	Long Title	Real Value	State Value	Sort Order	Description
Once_in_2_to_5_years				1
Once_in_6_to_12_years				2
Not_Flooded				3

Probabilities

Once_in_2_to_5_years	Once_in_6_to_12_years	Not_Flooded
0.3333333	0.3333333	0.3333333

Ground_Cover

Type:	Nature
Discrete / Continuous:	Discrete
Short Name:	Ground_Cover
Long Name:	Ground Cover
Short Description:	None
Long Description:	Bare = less than 30% Moderate = 30-70% High = greater than 70%
Parents:	None
Children:	Establishment
Total States:	3
Hidden:
Enabled:
Default State:	None
Display Colour:	Lime

States

Short Title	Long Title	Real Value	State Value	Sort Order	Description
Less_than_30_%				1
30_to_70_%				2
Greater_than_70_%				3

Probabilities

Less_than_30_%	30_to_70_%	Greater_than_70_%
0.3333333	0.3333333	0.3333333

Browsing_Sheep

Type:	Nature
Discrete / Continuous:	Discrete
Short Name:	Browsing_Sheep
Long Name:	Browsing by Sheep
Short Description:	None
Long Description:	Two states either with or without sheep
Parents:	None
Children:	Establishment
Total States:	2
Hidden:
Enabled:
Default State:	None
Display Colour:	Lime

States

Short Title	Long Title	Real Value	State Value	Sort Order	Description
No				1
Yes				2

Probabilities

No	Yes
0.5	0.5

Establishment

Type:	Nature
Discrete / Continuous:	Discrete
Short Name:	Establishment
Long Name:	Establishment
Short Description:	None
Long Description:	None
Parents:	Soil_Type, REs, Ground_Cover, Browsing_Sheep
Children:	Suitability
Total States:	3
Hidden:
Enabled:
Default State:	None
Display Colour:	Yellow

States

Short Title	Long Title	Real Value	State Value	Sort Order	Description
High				1
Moderate				2
Low				3

Probabilities

Soil_Type

REs

Ground_Cover

Browsing_Sheep

High

Moderate

Low

good

Once_in_2_to_5_years

Less_than_30_%

0.7

0.2

0.1

good

Once_in_2_to_5_years

Less_than_30_%

Yes

0.2

0.5

0.3

good

Once_in_2_to_5_years

30_to_70_%

0.3

0.6

0.1

good

Once_in_2_to_5_years

30_to_70_%

Yes

0.09

0.61

0.3

good

Once_in_2_to_5_years

Greater_than_70_%

0.1

0.2

0.7

good

Once_in_2_to_5_years

Greater_than_70_%

Yes

0.03

0.2

0.77

good

Once_in_6_to_12_years

Less_than_30_%

0.1

0.6

0.3

good

Once_in_6_to_12_years

Less_than_30_%

Yes

0.02

0.52

0.46

good

Once_in_6_to_12_years

30_to_70_%

0.04

0.66

0.3

good

Once_in_6_to_12_years

30_to_70_%

Yes

0.01

0.53

0.46

good

Once_in_6_to_12_years

Greater_than_70_%

0.01

0.22

0.77

good

Once_in_6_to_12_years

Greater_than_70_%

Yes

0.18

0.82

good

Not_Flooded

Less_than_30_%

0.3

0.7

good

Not_Flooded

Less_than_30_%

Yes

0.23

0.77

good

Not_Flooded

30_to_70_%

0.3

0.7

good

Not_Flooded

30_to_70_%

Yes

0.23

0.77

good

Not_Flooded

Greater_than_70_%

0.1

0.9

good

Not_Flooded

Greater_than_70_%

Yes

0.08

0.92

fair

Once_in_2_to_5_years

Less_than_30_%

0.3

0.6

0.1

fair

Once_in_2_to_5_years

Less_than_30_%

Yes

0.09

0.61

0.3

Climate_Index

Type:	Nature
Discrete / Continuous:	Discrete
Short Name:	Climate_Index
Long Name:	Climate Index
Short Description:	None
Long Description:	None
Parents:	None
Children:	Survival
Total States:	3
Hidden:
Enabled:
Default State:	None
Display Colour:	Lime

States

Short Title	Long Title	Real Value	State Value	Sort Order	Description
50_to_100				1
25_to_50				2
0_to_25				3

Probabilities

50_to_100	25_to_50	0_to_25
0.3333333	0.3333333	0.3333333

Survival

Type:	Nature
Discrete / Continuous:	Discrete
Short Name:	Survival
Long Name:	Survival
Short Description:	None
Long Description:	Good = healthy juvenille adult population Poor = stressed and some mortality
Parents:	Soil_Type, Climate_Index, REs
Children:	Suitability
Total States:	2
Hidden:
Enabled:
Default State:	None
Display Colour:	Yellow

States

Short Title	Long Title	Real Value	State Value	Sort Order	Description
Good				1
Poor				2

Probabilities

Soil_Type

Climate_Index

REs

Good

Poor

good

50_to_100

Once_in_2_to_5_years

0.9

0.1

good

50_to_100

Once_in_6_to_12_years

0.9

0.1

good

50_to_100

Not_Flooded

0.7

0.3

good

25_to_50

Once_in_2_to_5_years

0.7

0.3

good

25_to_50

Once_in_6_to_12_years

0.7

0.3

good

25_to_50

Not_Flooded

0.54

0.46

good

0_to_25

Once_in_2_to_5_years

0.1

0.9

good

0_to_25

Once_in_6_to_12_years

0.1

0.9

good

0_to_25

Not_Flooded

0.08

0.92

fair

50_to_100

Once_in_2_to_5_years

0.7

0.3

fair

50_to_100

Once_in_6_to_12_years

0.7

0.3

fair

50_to_100

Not_Flooded

0.54

0.46

fair

25_to_50

Once_in_2_to_5_years

0.54

0.46

fair

25_to_50

Once_in_6_to_12_years

0.54

0.46

fair

25_to_50

Not_Flooded

0.42

0.58

fair

0_to_25

Once_in_2_to_5_years

0.08

0.92

fair

0_to_25

Once_in_6_to_12_years

0.08

0.92

fair

0_to_25

Not_Flooded

0.06

0.94

poor

50_to_100

Once_in_2_to_5_years

0.1

0.9

poor

50_to_100

Once_in_6_to_12_years

0.1

0.9

Suitability

Type:	Nature
Discrete / Continuous:	Discrete
Short Name:	Suitability
Long Name:	Suitability
Short Description:	None
Long Description:	None
Parents:	Establishment, Survival
Children:	Susceptibility
Total States:	3
Hidden:
Enabled:
Default State:	None
Display Colour:	Red

States

Short Title	Long Title	Real Value	State Value	Sort Order	Description
High				1
Moderate				2
Low				3

Probabilities

Establishment	Survival	High	Moderate	Low
High	Good	1	0	0
High	Poor	0	0	1
Moderate	Good	0	1	0
Moderate	Poor	0	0	1
Low	Good	0	0	1
Low	Poor	0	0	1

Susceptibility

Type:	Nature
Discrete / Continuous:	Discrete
Short Name:	Susceptibility
Long Name:	Susceptibility
Short Description:	None
Long Description:	None
Parents:	Suitability, Introduction
Children:	None
Total States:	3
Hidden:
Enabled:
Default State:	None
Display Colour:	Red

States

Short Title	Long Title	Real Value	State Value	Sort Order	Description
High				1
Moderate				2
Low				3

Probabilities

Suitability	Introduction	High	Moderate	Low
High	Yes	1	0	0
High	No	0	0	1
Moderate	Yes	0	1	0
Moderate	No	0	0	1
Low	Yes	0	0	1
Low	No	0	0	1